Friday, December 19, 2003
The American Research group poll shows Kerry climbing 7 points in New Hampshire. Especially interesting is that Clark’s support fell and Lieberman only got a one percentage bounce out of the Gore endorsement sympathy vote.
Then a new poll by the Pew Group in Iowa shows Kerry moving to within the margin of error with Gephardt.
IOWA: Dean, 29 percent; Gephardt, 21 percent; Kerry, 18 percent; Edwards, 5 percent, Kucinich, 4 percent; Clark, 3 percent; Lieberman, 1 percent; Moseley Braun, 1 percent; Sharpton, 1 percent.
Another important factor in Kerry’s favor in the Iowa caucus is the 15% rule. If a candidate doesn’t have 15% of the vote in a caucus room, his support is kicked out of the next round of the caucus. His supporters can choose to throw their support to another candidate. I have a hard time believing Clark or Edward’s supporters are going to choose to support Dean. Plus, Kerry has the most elected officials in his corner and the best organization. This will lend extra credence to Kerry in the caucus room.
Not only has the “bleeding” stopped, but also Kerry has shown impressive gains in poll in those states. This blog mentioned in mid-November the national media will start to search for a new story about Kerry to show he is fighting back:
The national media has been relentlessly negative when it comes to Kerry. After the campaign turnover, I believe they are “looking” to write the story now about “how Kerry is now the comeback kid.” (The media is too predictable) Kerry is 10-15% off in New Hampshire, but only 5% off of Dean in IA. Iowa is the easiest place for Kerry to build momentum especially since Gep and Dean are going to be doing negative attacks against each other. By staying active in IA, Kerry can position himself as the visionary with the right temperament to heal the nation. If Kerry pulls even with Dean in Iowa in December, the media is going snowball the momentum for us.(Written when Gephardt was leading)
I’m certainly hoping the Yepsen article is the tip of the iceberg for the good press to finally start coming Kerry’s way. With Dean and Kerry battling it out in the month of January for the lead in both New Hampshire and Iowa, Edwards, Gephardt, Clark and Lieberman are going to quickly slip off the radar. This boost is Kerry will solidify his position as the anti-Dean candidate going into Super Tuesday.