Tuesday, October 26, 2004
An Exchange with My Friend Brian Greene
I actually feel better than yesterday. Looking at the current electoral vote indicator. Bush has 285 electoral votes to Kerrys 247 with 6 tied. However if you consider the states where the lead is less than 5% as tossups Kerry is leading 217-199.My response: I think your analysis is correct. Kerry never went for a popular vote strategy, hence why he didn't pander to the base as heavily as other candidates in the primaries. Instead he tried to stay centrist, hence why his numbers aren't as good in many solid blue states.
The basic scenario still stands that for Kerry to win he must win two of the three big tamales (PA, FL, and OH) as well as two of the three midwest battlegrounds (MN,WI,IA). I don't see how Kerry can fail to win four of the six states including two large ones and win electorally.
Bush wins if he can just take Florida along with two of the three Midwest battlegrounds.
However even if Bush carrys Florida and Wisconsin while Kerry wins the other four big prizes, he can still win electorally if everything else falls into place for him. If Bush carrys Florida, Wisconsin, Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Arkansas, Virginia, Colorado, and West Virginia, he will be re-elected.
Kerry's liability in the electoral college is that Bush leads 162-67 in states with a 10 point or greater margin. Kerry has a lot more states that aren't blow outs to defend. There is much less room for error with the Kerry campaign.
Some might call it risky to not ignite the base and play to the swing vote. However, I disagree. Democrats really have no other option to win given that the Electoral College is so skewed in favor of a Republican (due to small states).