Tuesday, October 05, 2004
Swing Voters
I have been firm defender of the Kerry campaign’s focus on swing voters. There are those in our party who believe it is best just to whip the base up and turn them out on Election Day and hope our numbers are better. I think strategically it would be a great strategy in a popular vote election, however this strategy would be disastrous for Democrats in the Electoral College. We might have heavy turnout in California, Illinois, New York, but lose Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Pennsylvania by focusing on exciting the far left.
I believe we are starting to see the fruits of Kerry’s strategy paying off. He has relentlessly focused on the swing voters and made headway in those all important battleground states. Yes, the convention was focused on the 3-5% swing voters in the battleground states and was so narrowly focused it did not to give much of a bounce to him in the polls. However, it laid the groundwork for his post debate momentum in those narrow battleground state polls.
Now as he is building momentum (yes, it was planned to happen post Labor Day just look at every race he has ever run), he can throw some “red meat” to the base. For all the bitching and whinning by every “Democratic” pundit in August and September, Kerry would have been stupid to go on the offensive before the Republican Sept 11th convention. His momentum would have stalled, but instead he laid low building preparing the ground for a November victory, and now once again will be “Comeback Kerry” with the wind at his back going into November.
Campaigns are about momentum and it is better to have it in October than August. Ask Howard Dean about that…
Strategy aside… The Kerry campaigns focus on swing voters and moderates is the Right thing to do for the country. Ripping the country apart on every issue feeds the cynicism that suppresses voter turnout. Suppressing voter turnout only helps Republicans since on the majority of the issues, the American public agrees with Democrats. If any Democrat had been elected on such a narrow basis by just appealing to the far left, their chances of successful governing would be slim to none.
I believe we are starting to see the fruits of Kerry’s strategy paying off. He has relentlessly focused on the swing voters and made headway in those all important battleground states. Yes, the convention was focused on the 3-5% swing voters in the battleground states and was so narrowly focused it did not to give much of a bounce to him in the polls. However, it laid the groundwork for his post debate momentum in those narrow battleground state polls.
Now as he is building momentum (yes, it was planned to happen post Labor Day just look at every race he has ever run), he can throw some “red meat” to the base. For all the bitching and whinning by every “Democratic” pundit in August and September, Kerry would have been stupid to go on the offensive before the Republican Sept 11th convention. His momentum would have stalled, but instead he laid low building preparing the ground for a November victory, and now once again will be “Comeback Kerry” with the wind at his back going into November.
Campaigns are about momentum and it is better to have it in October than August. Ask Howard Dean about that…
Strategy aside… The Kerry campaigns focus on swing voters and moderates is the Right thing to do for the country. Ripping the country apart on every issue feeds the cynicism that suppresses voter turnout. Suppressing voter turnout only helps Republicans since on the majority of the issues, the American public agrees with Democrats. If any Democrat had been elected on such a narrow basis by just appealing to the far left, their chances of successful governing would be slim to none.
# posted by AB @ 1:44 AM 
